Billionaire Elon Musk believes that while the probability of AI wiping out humanity is only 20%, the fact that AI is becoming smarter than humans remains an existential threat.
Speaking on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast over the weekend, Musk expressed optimism, saying: “There is a 20% chance that humanity could be destroyed by artificial intelligence, but there’s an 80% probability of a good outcome.”
Elon Musk at the CPAC event in Washington, USA on 20. Photo: AFP
However, he emphasized: “I have always thought AI would be far more intelligent than humans. It is an existential risk, and that is becoming a reality.”
This isn’t the first time Musk has cited this percentage. Previously, he estimated the probability of AI wiping out humanity to be between 10% and 20%. He also predicted that AI will surpass human intelligence within the next one to two years and will reach a level where it is “smarter than all humans combined” by 2029 or 2030.
Musk adjusted his timeline, as he previously told Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank, in a live interview last year that AI could surpass human intelligence as early as late 2025.
Many other AI experts share concerns about the potential for AI to end humanity. Professor Geoffrey Hinton, a scientist who won the 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics, estimated a 10% chance that AI could lead to human extinction within the next 30 years.
Musk has been heavily involved in the AI industry. He co-founded OpenAI with the goal of creating an open-source, non-profit AI as a counter to Google. However, he later sued OpenAI, claiming the company had betrayed its mission by shifting to a for-profit model and partnering with Microsoft.
Additionally, Musk explained that he was unsatisfied with OpenAI’s models, which led him to create Grok, an AI model with the goal of “pursuing maximum truth.”
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